There are only two kinds of predictions: Lucky and wrong

Stay away from predicting the future. If you’re wrong, you look foolish. At best you get lucky and you’re right, and you start thinking you’re a genius, and you start making more predictions and you’re eventually wrong and you look foolish. There’s no upside to making predictions.

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Don’t present your beliefs as the company rule

Present them as your rule. Not the company rule. Make a good argument for your beliefs, maybe people will listen. Better to separate your own persona from the company.

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Weigh up the probability of loss vs probability of gains-missed

You’re faced with the choice of investing in a new product or feature. To do, or not to do. A simplest test is as follows: Calculate the probability of failing, and quantify that loss. Calculate the probability of winning, and quantify the gains. Weigh up the probability of loss vs the probability of gains-missed.

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Turtles all the way down

Andreas: What holds the world up? Orestes: Atlas, of course. Andreas: But what holds up Atlas? Orestes: He stands on the back of a turtle. Andreas: But what does the turtle stand on? Orestes: On another turtle’s back. Andreas: But what does that turtle stand on? Orestes: My dear Andreas, it’s turtles all the way…

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Plan every battle as though retreat is inevitable

Fight every battle as though retreat is not an option. That way you always have a fall-back position. But you also give yourself the best odds of victory.

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Most problems don’t need big solutions

Most of the time, the bigger the solution, the less likely it is to succeed.  Problems, big and small, and mostly addressed with small solutions. Avoid the temptation for a grand project to solve all the world’s problems. Find a small solution. Preferably one that no one else is chasing. Most problems don’t need big…

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What are you?

Are you a fighter? A salesman? A politician? A grafter? Whatever you are, that’s how you find success. If you’re a salesman, you sell your way to success. If you’re a politician, you politic your way to success. If you’re a fighter, you fight your way to success. You can’t find success by being something…

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Ask yourself: What is beyond survival?

In business it’s easy to get so consumed in surviving that you forget to ask, what else? What is beyond survival? If you get out the woods, what next? What are you struggling for? What makes it worth it? You may just find the ultimate purpose is not worth the struggle. You must just find…

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Even the best manager can be the little boy with the big dog

When a little boy takes a big dog for a walk, he spends his time waiting to see where the dog wants to go so he can take him there. That’s not leading. That’s managing. Leading is showing the big dog where to go, and taking it there.

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People that aren’t necessarily leaders:

Managers. Entrepreneurs Knowledge masters. Pioneers. People with titles. Visionaries. Just because you’re one of the above, doesn’t mean you’re a leader. To be a leader means people are willing to follow you. That’s it.

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Just because someone doesn’t like you doesn’t mean you’re broken

People chemistry is like food. Sometimes it’s just the wrong time and vibe for steak. Different timing and vibe and steak is the perfect meal. Same with people you meet. Sometimes they like you, sometimes they don’t. Just because someone doesn’t like you doesn’t mean you’re broken. Just try again later, in a different vibe.

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Don’t fret over stuff that hasn’t happened

Worried your client will be late with payment? Worried your budget won’t be approved? Worried you won’t find an investor? Don’t. All that stuff hasn’t happened yet. Worry what is right before you. Don’t fret over stuff that hasn’t happened.

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