Beware of regression to the mean

Statistically speaking, you will be rewarded for punishing others, and punished for rewarding.

Its just math.

All things being equal, if the odds of scoring a goal are 50/50, then someone who has just scored a great goal is more likely to miss his next shot. Same for someone who has just missed a shot at goal.

The person who missed the goal is likely to score on his next attempt, regardless of whether you shout it him.

The person who scored the goal is likely to miss his next attempt, regardless of whether you reward him.

It’s simply regression to the mean.

Many people confuse confuse correlation with causation.

Based on the above results, they assume that punishment is effective, and rewards backfire.

Don’t be that dummy.

Beware of regression to the mean.